Strait of Hormuz: Tanker lull persists despite Trump’s peace pledge

Commercial vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz have remained limited this week, despite reports of potential Iran-Iran peace negotiations succeeding, according to maritime intelligence firms. Only a few merchant ships and tankers have attempted to pass through the strait following US President Donald Trump's reassurance that an agreement with Iran had been reached.

Strait of Hormuz crossings dropped 77% day-on-day to just five vessels on Saturday, with all transits occurring through the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, as reported by Kpler. Only three tankers transited the region on Monday, a decrease from seven vessels on Sunday, according to Kpler's data. This trend suggests "reduced operational confidence and limited routing flexibility," according to the intelligence firm.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly lower than pre-war levels witnessed before the initial US-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28. The strait recorded 12 identified transits over the past 24 hours, while maritime intelligence firm Windward reported similar figures. Most vessels attempting to cross the region have their transponders turned off to avoid detection.

Meanwhile, traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait has increased, with 47 crossings recorded on Saturday despite ongoing movement of sanctioned vessels, shadow fleet operations, and dark transits, as per Kpler. Twenty-two Chinese-owned or flagged vessels transited the strait or visited Saudi Arabian ports between July 20 and August 2 without any issues, despite four Saudi-linked tankers being targeted during the same period, according to Windward.

Some vessels, including six Saudi Arabian-flagged crude carriers, chose a lengthy Cape of Good Hope route instead of the Bab al-Mandeb route, adding at least 6-7 days to five US Gulf Coast-bound legs and roughly 30 days to one Taiwan-Saudi Arabia leg, Windward reported. Operators are closely monitoring traffic volumes, routing behavior, and any diplomatic developments that may reshape risk across regional shipping lanes in the coming days, according to Kpler.