OIL MARKET JOLTS: Explainer: Why jet fuel and diesel are so vulnerable to price shocks
You may be able to electric vehicle your way out of the fuel crisis hitting your daily commute, but those spikes will hit you on your next flight, and in your shopping basket.
The story presents the vulnerability of jet fuel and diesel to price shocks in the oil market. FlySafair, a South African airline, was the first to increase ticket prices following a surge in jet fuel costs. Jet fuel prices skyrocketed from R11.14 per litre to R30 and even up to R38 in major airports after the beginning of the Iran conflict. The increase in prices led to a 14% decline in passengers, as reported by FlySafair's chief marketing officer.
The difference between jet fuel and other fuels like gasoline and diesel lies in the crack spread, which represents the refining margin or the cost and profit associated with refining crude into finished petroleum products. During a peak in 2026, the jet fuel crack spread reached $80 per barrel, a significant increase from its historical average of $25 per barrel.
South Africa's refining landscape has become highly vulnerable, with the number of operating refineries decreasing from six in 2015 to two in 2026. This has resulted in a surge in fuel imports, with 75% of fuel coming from abroad. The Strait of Hormuz, which 70% of jet fuel imports travel through, leaves the local market completely exposed to global supply shocks.
Refineries operate as integrated, multi-product chemical systems, but their yield constraints mean that when refining capacity is lost globally, supply of minor-yield products like jet fuel falls disproportionately fast, triggering severe price spikes. This rigidity in refining capacity also highlights the fundamental role of diesel in heavy industry and mining, which cannot easily substitute diesel even when its price spikes.
Written by urgent.news from Daily Maverick's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
