Ghana makes impressive progress toward macroeconomic stabilisation, debt sustainability, but vulnerabilities remain – IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has commended Ghana for making notable strides in macroeconomic stabilization and debt sustainability through the Economic Credit Facility (ECF)-supported program. Achievements under this initiative, approved in May 2023, include curtailing acute financing pressures, reinforcing fiscal consolidation, bolstering monetary policy credibility, augmenting reserve accumulation, and executing extensive debt restructuring.

From the end of 2022 to the end of 2025, inflation has plummeted from a peak of 54.1% to 5.4%, while the country's gross international reserves (GIR) have surged eightfold. Furthermore, the primary fiscal balance has shifted from a deficit of 4.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2022 to a surplus of 2.1% in 2025, according to the IMF's 2026 Article IV Consultation on Ghana.

The Fund attributes this progress to historically high gold prices, which have contributed to reserve accumulation and exchange rate stability.

However, the IMF cautioned that significant vulnerabilities still persist in Ghana's economic landscape despite the aforementioned advancements. While policy credibility has not yet been fully solidified and remains susceptible to reform fatigue and political-economic pressures, the fiscal consolidation has largely relied on spending compression, giving rise to concerns about its long-term sustainability, especially considering Ghana's significant development requirements and emerging security challenges.

Consequently, the IMF highlighted ongoing vulnerabilities in the financial sector, including elevated non-performing loans (NPLs), particularly among state-owned banks and certain private institutions. Additionally, the Bank of Ghana (BoG) has incurred losses equivalent to 1.5% of GDP due to its Domestic Gold Purchase Programme (DGPP), and several state-owned enterprises (SOEs) continue to pose substantial fiscal risks, as detailed in the Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA).

These persistent weaknesses in oversight and operational performance underscore the need for continued vigilance and targeted interventions to address these vulnerabilities.