Did al-Qaeda Succeed?

Since the tragic events of September 11, 2001, al-Qaeda has only managed to carry out a single fatal attack inside the United States. On December 6, 2019, a 21-year-old Royal Saudi Air Force officer with al-Qaeda ties killed three U.S. sailors at a naval air base in Pensacola, Florida, using a legally acquired Glock pistol before being killed himself. For decades, al-Qaeda had attempted various plots to strike America, all of which failed until the Pensacola incident.

The group's ultimate goal was not fear, but rather political change. Al-Qaeda's 9/11 attacks killed 2,977 people, instilling fear in Americans. However, fear served as a means to an end for al-Qaeda. Following 9/11, the group attempted attacks in 2002, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2017—all unsuccessful. They had considered more schemes before Pensacola, but failed each time.

After 9/11, al-Qaeda shifted its focus. Instead of targeting America directly, the organization has built franchises in regions like East Africa, Yemen, and the Sahel. These franchises have become ruthless and wealthy, with the East African branch estimated to have 10,000 men and generate around $100 million annually through taxation, smuggling, and theft. The Sahel-based Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin has even attempted to overthrow a government in Mali.

While al-Qaeda has likely halted its attacks on America due to a preference for expanding its influence through overseas territories, Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert, warns that the group's leadership—often referred to as "al-Qaeda core"—could return to targeting the U.S. in the future. He believes the al-Qaeda concept has taken root, giving the organization's leadership the luxury of deciding when to begin killing Americans again. Hoffman also expresses concern that al-Qaeda may enlist its franchises to carry out such attacks.