Commentary: Why Washington can no longer treat Ukraine and Iran as separate wars

As the Iran and Ukraine conflicts increasingly intertwine, what initially appeared to be a Russian triumph for Putin has also become a chance for Ukraine, according to international security professor Stefan Wolff. The recent Iran war has proven beneficial for Ukraine in ways that go beyond their own battlefield. In July, Ukrainian forces struck Iranian cargo ships and their Russian navy escort in the Caspian Sea, underscoring the connection between both wars. This development has made Ukraine more strategically valuable to the US.

While the links between Russia and Iran have always existed, they have become more significant in practical terms. Ukraine has accused Russia of providing new assistance to Iran, including satellite surveillance of US bases. Russia has denied these allegations. However, if true, Russia's support would put Moscow directly against Washington in the Iran war.

Drones are a crucial link between Russia and Iran. Initially, Moscow relied on Iranian Shahed-136 drones after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, Russia now reportedly supplies Iran with upgraded Geran drones based on the Shahed design. This changing relationship has vulnerabilities that Ukraine has managed to exploit, strengthening its position with the US.

In addition to striking Iranian vessels, Ukraine has become a direct player in the Iran war. Ukraine's military experts have been sent to the Gulf to assist US, Israel, and Gulf allies in countering Iranian drone attacks. Ukraine's most recent strike in the Caspian Sea targeted the Iran-Russia supply chain itself, weakening the flow of critical drones and components to Iran and impacting both countries' maritime logistics.

The flow of drones and drone components into Iran is now under threat, as are the wider maritime logistics and networks that help evade US and EU oil sanctions. A front in the Russia-Ukraine war has now become part of the US-Iran war. One Ukrainian operation could simultaneously impact two conflicts.

This strategic shift makes supporting Ukraine more strategically appealing for the US, even from an America-first perspective. The US is considering licensing Ukraine to co-produce components for Patriot PAC-3 interceptor missiles and accelerating the cheaper PAC-3 ACE variant, which could ease pressure on the US-only supply chain strained by both wars.