Brent: Deal hopes pressure prices below $80 – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that Brent oil prices have plummeted below the $80 per barrel threshold, a development they attribute to market expectations of an imminent U.S.-Iran deal that might reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, they caution that the potential deal's brevity and constrained tanker movements in the region keep the global oil market tightly balanced.

The ongoing weakness in oil prices, with ICE Brent settling over 5% lower, signifies continued downward pressure on the market. While there are whispers that a deal could be finalized as early as today, experts advise against overreaction, citing the substantial gap between the U.S. and Iran's approaches to the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear issue.

Recent U.S. crude oil inventories have surged by 2.7 million barrels over the past week, surpassing market expectations of a 1.5 million barrel decline. Supply increases in Cushing and refined products also indicate a tight market scenario. A successful deal could shift focus towards supply and demand balances in the fourth quarter and 2027, with potential restocking dynamics expected to absorb a significant portion of the anticipated surplus.