Bitcoin price-metric basket sees longest capitulation since FTX blow-up: Glassnode
Glassnode confirmed that its aggregate BTC price cycle tool was in its coldest phase since the collapse of FTX in late 2022.
Onchain analytics firm Glassnode has reported that Bitcoin's price-metric basket is experiencing its longest period of capitulation since the FTX collapse in late 2022. The Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap, a composite tool created by the company's co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft, has signaled capitulation throughout 2026. This metric, which combines data from 45 indicators, presents an overall view of market health during Bitcoin price cycles.
After a euphoric phase in November 2021, the heatmap shifted to a more cautious blue color for most of 2022. However, today it is in its coldest stretch since the end of 2022, according to Schultze-Kraft. The heatmap places significant emphasis on investor profitability, factoring in both short-term and long-term holders. One key metric the heatmap tracks is the dormancy of Bitcoin holdings, which refers to the number of days a unit of BTC remains idle in an onchain transaction.
As more investors become aged, dormancy increases, creating a more complex signal for cycle analysis. In its latest Market Pulse report, Glassnode praised the resilience of market participants, noting that on-chain activity has strengthened, with daily active addresses and entity-adjusted transfer volumes moving above their upper statistical bands.
This increase in network engagement and economic throughput came despite a temporary reaction from some investors following the bug exploit in Coldcard hardware wallets. CryptoQuant's data suggests that the uptick in onchain transactions of 1 BTC or less resembles the aftermath of the FTX implosion, with 39,600 BTC moving on July 31, compared to 39,900 on November 16, 2022.
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