With its new leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, does Iran want – or need – a nuclear weapon?
Iran’s new supreme leader is reportedly more interested in building a bomb than his father. Where does this leave future negotiations?
The question of whether Iran desires or requires nuclear weapons has become increasingly relevant amid the ongoing US conflict with the country. The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint, has become a key battlefield, and Iran's ability to control its flow has given Tehran a potent weapon of leverage. Iran's enriched uranium stockpile of approximately 440 kilograms (970 pounds) at 60% purity could theoretically yield 10 nuclear warheads.
Furthermore, Iran's nuclear power plants require enrichment levels between 3-5%, while research programs generally necessitate enrichment levels not exceeding 20%. These figures suggest Iran's ambitions are far more than just academic or defensive; they hint at a strategic pursuit of nuclear capability. However, the recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities may have hindered Iran's efforts to construct a nuclear bomb, but the core expertise and covert knowledge remain intact.
Furthermore, the new Iranian supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is reportedly more inclined towards nuclear weapons than his predecessor. Despite these factors, it remains uncertain whether Iran will actively pursue a nuclear weapon. The theory of nuclear deterrence posits that a state would seek nuclear weapons primarily to deter attacks from adversaries.
A nuclear Iran could potentially deter attacks from its neighbors, who would be deterred from launching conventional or nuclear attacks against Iran, given the threat of retaliation. Conversely, Iran's ability to deter attacks from adversaries could also provide Iran with a powerful diplomatic tool, as it could leverage its nuclear status to secure security assurances and reintegration into the global economy.
Before the current war, Iran had signaled interest in reducing its enriched uranium stockpile in exchange for lifting sanctions. Such a deal was tentatively agreed upon in a memorandum of understanding. However, Iran's renewed commitment to nuclear development, coupled with its skepticism towards the new administration, suggests that the prospect of a nuclear Iran, albeit not certain, cannot be ruled out.
The question of whether diplomacy can avert this scenario remains open. The previous Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), seems to offer a potential pathway for resolution. This deal, negotiated by the five UN Security Council permanent members plus Germany, was largely compliant with Iran's obligations.
However, a successful diplomatic resolution will require significant concessions from both sides and a restoration of trust, which appears elusive given the current political climate. Hence, while the possibility of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons remains a significant concern, the path to achieving this remains complex and fraught with challenges.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — it may contain errors, so check the original before relying on it.
