What does Zambia's opposition stand without Edgar Lungu?

Zambia's opposition is set to enter the 2026 general election without Edgar Lungu, the former president who united its biggest parties and inspired much of its support. Lungu died on June 5, 2025, in South Africa. Following Lungu's death, opposition parties have been vying to inherit his political legacy while asserting their credibility as an alternative to incumbent Hakainde Hichilema's ruling United Party for National Development (UPND).

Lungu led the Patriotic Front (PF) party, which became part of the Tonse Alliance in 2024. Political analyst Neo Simutanyi notes that Lungu's absence highlights an unresolved leadership question within the opposition coalition, as he had intended to back someone who would carry forward his political project but never had the chance to announce it.

Competing claims for the Tonse Alliance's 2026 presidential candidate emerged after Lungu's death, with Brian Mundubile endorsed by the coalition. Mundubile, a former PF ally, is seen as Hichilema's top challenger. Analysts observe that Lungu's influence remains significant, as candidates are campaigning on his legacy and targeting his strong support base, particularly in Zambia's mining heartland, the Copperbelt.

While some voters emphasize economic factors over personalities for the election, Lungu's absence remains deeply felt among PF supporters, who find it difficult to find a leader with his same level of influence. The Tonse Pamodzi Alliance, now led by Brian Mundubile, maintains unity behind its candidate, rejecting suggestions that the coalition has lost momentum.

Analysts say Zambia's opposition faces a challenge akin to other Southern African countries that have struggled after losing dominant leaders. The upcoming election will determine whether opposition parties can broaden their appeal beyond one influential figure.