Ukraine's economy returns to growth in Q2

Ukraine's economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2026, growing by 0.6% year over year, according to the State Statistics Service. This marked a significant improvement from the 0.6% decline observed in the first quarter of the same year. The economy experienced a 0.4% increase compared to the previous quarter, after contracting by 0.7% in the preceding period.

Prior to this data, Ukraine's Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture had estimated a real GDP growth of 2.2% for 2025. In February 2026, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development reduced its growth forecast for Ukraine in 2026, projecting only 2.5% growth for the year. The EBRD had initially anticipated a 4% growth rate in 2027, if the ongoing conflict persisted throughout 2026.

In February 2026, Ukraine's real GDP had contracted by 0.5% year over year, following a 3.0% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 2.1% increase in the third quarter, a 0.7% rise in the second quarter, and a 0.8% decline in the first quarter. Later revisions by the State Statistics Service adjusted the first-quarter 2026 GDP contraction estimate from 0.5% to 0.6% year over year.

Notably, Ukraine's real GDP declined 0.6% year over year in the first quarter of 2026, after falling by 0.7% from the previous quarter. The National Bank of Ukraine reinstated its 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 1.8%, aligning with the January projection, following a downward adjustment to 1.3% in April.