SpaceX's satellite ambitions squeeze out rivals reliant on its rockets
SpaceX is increasingly reserving rocket space for its own Starlink satellites. This trend is crowding out rival space companies that rely on SpaceX launches. Many spacecraft companies face booked Falcon 9 rockets until 2028 or 2029. SpaceX's new Starship rocket is designed for reusability and lower costs. This shift impacts the availability and cost of space access for external customers.
SpaceX is increasingly prioritizing its own Starlink satellite launches on its rockets, leaving fewer opportunities for rival companies dependent on the company's Falcon 9 rockets. In 2020, Starlink made up 54% of the Falcon 9 rocket's manifest, rising to 79% in 2026, according to Reuters analysis. At least seven spacecraft companies have been told Falcon 9 is fully booked until 2028 or 2029 due to SpaceX's transition to the new Starship rocket, which is expected to be fully reusable and cheaper than Falcon 9.
Starlink's growing share of SpaceX launches reflects an economic reality, with analysts estimating that a single Starlink mission using Starship could generate tens of millions of dollars more in revenue for SpaceX than launching a commercial customer's payload to space. SpaceX generates $11.4 billion in revenue from Starlink, accounting for 60% of its earnings last year, while the company's NASA obligations and Starlink plans likely occupy most of its launches.
SpaceX's scarce resources, especially its launch capacity, may force it to prioritize internal satellites over external customers, creating a potential opportunity cost for the company. Competitors like Blue Origin, United Launch Alliance, and Rocket Lab are struggling to match SpaceX's reusability advantage or launch rate, with Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket and Iridium satellite communications firm acquisition providing a potential cost-effective alternative for satellite launches.
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