Pakistan Bets on Security and Trade as Ties with Iran Grow

Pakistan has played a crucial role in mediating the U.S./Israel war on Iran, earning praise for successfully navigating the complex geopolitical landscape. Long-standing practical relations with both Washington and Tehran have allowed the Pakistani leadership to capitalize on potential opportunities post-war. As Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, maintains a low public profile due to injury and security concerns, power has shifted toward a security-first approach guided by the IRGC and the Supreme National Security Council.

Iran's hardline stance, combined with Pakistan's strategic position as a neighbor, has led both countries to explore deeper security and economic cooperation. High-level meetings between Iranian and Pakistani officials, funded by Chinese backing, have focused on regional security, border management, cyber security, and counterterrorism.

Bilateral trade is expected to grow to $10 billion within a decade, with improved transport links, railway upgrades, and border special economic zones facilitating this growth. Iran's strategic partnership with China and its involvement in the BRI demonstrate the potential for increased economic integration. While sanctions on IRGC entities pose challenges, informal energy and goods flows already exist, which could be formalized with increased stability.

The Pakistani leadership is actively pursuing broader ties with Iran, with President Pezeshkian visiting Pakistan to express gratitude for Pakistan's efforts in regional de-escalation. The strengthened military and security presence in Iran is expected to foster practical, threat-focused engagement with Pakistan, contributing to shared security interests and economic opportunities.