NICE referral criteria miss up to 95% of women under 50 who go on to develop breast cancer within 10 years

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) criteria used to guide GPs in referring patients for further breast cancer risk assessment and specialist care are missing up to 95% of women under 50 who will develop the disease within 10 years, according to new research from the University of Cambridge and The Institute of Cancer Research, London.

Using the BOADICEA risk assessment tool, researchers identified eight times as many women in this age group who developed breast cancer as the NICE criteria. The study, published in the British Journal of Cancer, analyzed data from 1,258 women under 50 and found that the NICE criteria fail to identify as many as 95% of women under 50 who are at higher-than-average risk of breast cancer and 95% of women who go on to develop breast cancer within 10 years.

This is largely due to the fact that three-quarters of women under 50 who develop breast cancer within 10 years have no family history of the disease, which is the key criterion in the NICE guidelines.

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