Lars Feld: Es sind die Staatsausgaben, die die deutsche Wirtschaft treiben
Wer sich über jüngste BIP-Zahlen freut, der sollte wissen, dass vor allem die Aktivität des Staates für Schwung sorgt. Das private Investitionsproblem bleibt akut. Ein Gastbeitrag.
Economists are hopeful, watching the latest economic growth data. The Federal Statistical Office has released its estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2026. GDP, adjusted for price and calendar changes, rose by 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter. This follows a rise in the first quarter by 0.4 percent, which, after this revision, is 0.1 percentage points higher.
Additionally, recent revisions up to 2011 show higher growth rates. Notably, for 2024, there is now no contraction of GDP more than previously assumed; instead, it stagnates at 0.0 percent. On the other hand, the Ifo Institute reports the third consecutive increase in its business climate index, mainly due to increased business expectations.
The business climate index is an important leading indicator, usually preceding the economy by a few quarters. Many economic observers draw robust signs of recovery from this. However, caution is advised. The rise in the Ifo business climate index starts from a very low level. Only when the business situation embodies the increased business expectations can a recovery in the economy be established.
The latest GDP figures still paint a picture of stagnation in economic activity, as reflected in the revised numbers.
Written by urgent.news from Handelsblatt's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
