Iran: Is Reza Pahlavi's political star fading?

Recent investigations by Reuters into Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's last shah, have raised questions about whether his political star is waning among Western policymakers and Iranians. Despite initially appearing poised to lead Iran through a transitional period, senior US officials have distanced themselves from the possibility of a US-backed effort to place Pahlavi in power.

Critics accuse Pahlavi of relying too heavily on foreign military intervention and failing to cultivate a lasting political coalition. In 2026, he told Iranians that international pressure on Iran had entered an action stage and echoed US President Donald Trump's message about incoming help. However, after the military conflict failed to collapse the Iranian government and criticism over the war's consequences intensified, Pahlavi stated that the final victory would still be achieved by the Iranian people.

Some analysts argue that Western governments have never viewed Pahlavi as a viable option, as they require the ability to gain and manage power, influence existing power structures, and offer a realistic prospect of structural political change. European governments primarily prioritize stability in Iran, while the US favors accommodation with elements of the Islamic Republic to end its anti-American orientation and protect US interests.

Israel's approach is different due to ongoing hostility towards Iran. Pahlavi's strategy has relied on foreign powers, but these efforts have not resulted in decisive political backing. Some experts, like Arash Azizi, argue that Pahlavi lacks the necessary political skills for his ambitions, while others like Amir Taheri maintain that Pahlavi leads a movement that has connected various opposition groups and remains the most visible Iranian opposition figure abroad.

However, Pahlavi's popularity within Iran remains difficult to measure, with the consequences of war potentially damaging his standing further.