Indonesia: Trade risks and structural support – UOB
UOB economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen assess Indonesia’s June 2026 trade data, highlighting that the trade deficit narrowed as stronger non-oil and gas exports partly offset rapid import growth.
UOB economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen examine Indonesia's June 2026 trade figures, noting that the trade deficit narrowed as non-oil and gas exports outpaced rapid import growth. However, they caution of looming twin-deficit risks in both the current account and fiscal balance in the near term. These economists believe that downstream industrialisation and energy-security policies will bolster Indonesia's long-term external sustainability.
Indonesia's external position is likely to remain susceptible to geopolitical events and energy market swings, thus posing a heightened risk of a near-term twin deficit scenario. Despite this, industrialisation efforts and energy security measures are expected to enhance the economy's structural resilience in the long run, thereby improving external sustainability and diminishing reliance on fluctuating commodity cycles.
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