How ICE Arrests of Criminals Changed Under Donald Trump

A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reveals a significant shift in the nature of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests under President Donald Trump's second term. Contrary to the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) claims that enforcement efforts focused on "the worst of the worst," the research found that only one in three arrested individuals had a prior criminal conviction.

This figure represents a sharp decline from previous administrations and stands near a historic low. From October 2015 to March 2026, researchers analyzed administrative records covering approximately 1.6 million ICE arrests, tracking changes across the Obama, Biden, and Trump administrations. The study highlights a decline in the proportion of arrestees with criminal convictions, which dropped from 79% during President Barack Obama's final year to 34% during Trump's second term.

This represents a major shift from the long-standing DHS messaging that emphasized targeting high-priority offenders. The increase in community arrests, defined as arrests outside jails or prisons, played a key role in this change. Community arrests surged from 19% of total ICE arrests during Biden's final year to nearly 44% under Trump, accounting for a significant portion of arrests made outside traditional detention settings.

The decline in criminal convictions among arrestees was consistent across different enforcement methods, including those conducted with local law enforcement agencies. Researchers suggest that the rise in community arrests, driven by changes in ICE operations and rescission of Biden-era guidance, contributed to the falling share of arrestees with prior criminal convictions.

However, the study does not examine whether individuals arrested without criminal convictions were charged with civil immigration violations or had pending criminal charges. Instead, it focuses solely on the presence of prior criminal convictions in administrative data. Despite the decline, the Trump administration's hard-line mass deportation policies continued, with ICE arrests peaking at over 46,000 people in July 2023 alone.