Hormuz Tanker Traffic Stalls at Two-Month Low as Attacks Escalate

The Strait of Hormuz has experienced its lowest tanker traffic in over two months due to escalating security concerns and recent attacks on ships. Traffic had briefly increased in mid-June to early July with the temporary opening of the chokepoint under the now-defunct U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, but it has not recovered since.

Despite U.S. efforts to lower oil prices and renewed talks with Iran, the security situation has worsened over the past two weeks. Iran has made it clear its intent to control vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while the Iran-aligned Houthis have threatened shipments in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait leading to the Arabian Sea.

As a result, the flow of traffic at the Hormuz remains sluggish, with some tankers choosing to avoid the chokepoint altogether or using "dark mode" transit. On the weekend, the Egypt Prosperity, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), abandoned its attempt to exit the Persian Gulf after receiving direct radio threats. Reports from security consultancies indicate that the crew also heard explosions near the vessel.

Analysts from security and vessel-tracking firms have reported that the threats to shipping in the Gulf and Red Sea have reached the most dangerous level since the start of the Iran war. Matthew Wright, an analyst at Kpler, a ship-tracking firm, stated that the current period poses the worst safety situation for crude trade since the crisis began.