‘Enemy of my enemy is my friend’ not enough for lasting pacts
Analyst Asrul Sani says pre-election pacts will mean less compared with post-election alliances in GE16, with dealmaking to be the buttress of such cooperation.
Political analyst Asrul Sani of The Asia Group has cautioned that short-lived alliances formed to defeat a common rival, such as the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional pact in Malaysia, are unlikely to endure due to the volatile nature of the country's political landscape. He explained that alliances formed on the basis of opposing a single bogeyman, like Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Pakatan Harapan (PH), will not stand the test of time, especially if the initial objective of unseating Anwar is achieved.
Sani argued that sustainable, longer-term pacts necessitate more practical agreements, such as confidence and supply agreements (CSAs), which specify clear commitments in return for support from various parties. These CSAs could prove crucial in maintaining stability, particularly in a context where GE16 may result in a hung Parliament once again. Asrul also pointed out that dealmaking will likely take precedence over election pacts, with post-election alliances proving more enduring.
The existing political landscape in Malaysia is marked by fragmented parties, where allies can swiftly transform into adversaries and vice versa. PH, BN, the Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), and the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) are among the key players attempting to forge alliances for the upcoming general election. However, the dynamics among these parties have been complex, with some, like Bersatu, having previously left PH and joining forces with Umno and PAS in the past.
Wong Chin Huat, a political scientist from Sunway University, opined that the renewed Umno-PAS pact can be understood through simple arithmetic. He posited that Malaysia's political arena resembles a three-horse race among BN, PN, and PH, with the latter showing declining support. In such a scenario, a collapse of PH would incentivize BN and PN to collaborate to capture the territory left vacant.
However, Wong cautioned that despite their rhetoric of Malay-Muslim unity, Umno and PAS may not trust each other and could soon turn against one another should they emerge victorious in future elections, aiming to dominate the Malay vote.
Written by urgent.news from Free Malaysia Today's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
