Caterpillar lifts 2026 sales growth forecast as AI buildout powers on; shares surge 12%

On Tuesday, Caterpillar announced it had raised its annual revenue growth forecast for 2026, driven by a significant buildout of AI data centers that has increased demand for its power-generation and construction equipment. The company's shares surged by up to 12% in early trading, with the stock nearing its best day in over three months if gains continue. The stock's rise also contributed to a 1.8% increase in the Dow Jones industrial average.

Caterpillar's stronger-than-expected performance in the second quarter benefitted from a surge in orders for construction equipment, fueled by the country's ongoing data center buildout and the backup power equipment required for these facilities. Analyst Kristen Owen of Oppenheimer noted that construction has been the standout growth area in recent quarters.

In the April-to-June quarter, Caterpillar recorded orders worth $9.4 billion, increasing its order backlog to $72.1 billion. Core construction segment revenue grew by 35% in that period, propelled by strong retail sales, particularly in North America, which saw a 50% increase. The power and energy segment, which includes power generators and backup power equipment, posted a 17% revenue growth, contributing to 81% of the company's total revenue.

Caterpillar also announced an expected tariff recovery of $392 million in the second quarter, and reported adjusted per-share profit of $8.17, surpassing analysts' expectation of $6.20 per share. The company's earnings beat and revised forecast suggest that the AI-led demand boom for ancillary equipment remains sustainable, highlighting the durability of Caterpillar's core businesses.