Record low gap between births and deaths in S’pore poses demographic challenge

Singapore witnessed the smallest gap between births and deaths in almost a century in 2025, with only 3,365 more babies born than people who died, according to the latest Report on Registration of Births and Deaths. This marks a significant drop from the previous decade, where births outnumbered deaths by 22,323 in 2015. The natural increase of 3,365 people in 2025 is the lowest in the country's history since 1931, as births typically exceeded deaths by tens of thousands, with the highest number recorded in the late 1950s.

The trend of more deaths than births began to emerge among the Chinese community in 2022, when deaths exceeded births by 311, widening to 920 in 2023. This trend persisted into 2025, with 3,071 more deaths than births among the Chinese, despite a brief reversal in 2024 when births surpassed deaths by 99. The Malay, Indian, and Others ethnic groups continued to record natural increases in 2025, with 3,006, 1,199, and 2,231, respectively.

Assistant Professor Shannon Ang attributes the lower birth rate among the Chinese to their historically lowest birth rate compared to other races. Crude birth rates have fallen for all races over the years, with the Chinese experiencing the steepest decline from 8.6 in 2015 to 5.3 in 2025. This, coupled with the sharp rise in deaths, particularly among baby boomers in their 70s and 80s, has contributed to the narrowing gap between births and deaths.

Experts believe this demographic shift, without immigration, could lead to a shrinking population for Singapore by the early 2040s. The Government has acknowledged the need for carefully managed immigration to counteract the low birth rate, aiming to admit between 25,000 and 30,000 new citizens annually over the next five years.