Jeanine Pirro's Chances of Exiting Trump Admin Amid DC Reflecting Pool Feud

Prediction markets are increasingly predicting that Jeanine Pirro's tenure as U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia is coming to an end. This comes just as she takes a significant step by convening a special grand jury in Washington. The odds of her announcing her departure are at 97% before September 1 and 94% before January 1, 2027.

This surge in predictions followed President Donald Trump's public disagreement with her over the Reflecting Pool vandalism case. Pirro has authorized the special grand jury, overseen by her ally Steven Vandervelden, which is unusual in Washington, D.C. Special grand juries are rarely used and can issue public reports naming individuals, even if no charges are brought.

This move comes as Trump has increased pressure on the Justice Department to pursue cases against his critics, and when Pirro's standing within the administration has become uncertain. Her office has failed to secure convictions in several Trump-backed cases, including an investigation into Jerome Powell, allegations of manipulated crime statistics, and charges against six Democratic lawmakers from a video rejecting illegal orders.

Last week, Pirro dismissed the felony case against David Hearn, stating new Interior Department documents showed the Reflecting Pool damage was due to a faulty contractor installation, not vandalism. Trump, however, accused her of "folding like an umbrella" and insisted the damage was "100% vandalism." Trump later told reporters he had not yet decided on her job status.

The filing for the special grand jury was submitted before Pirro dropped the Reflecting Pool case, meaning the decision predates Trump's public criticism but now unfolds under scrutiny. Special grand juries run for 18 to 36 months and require court approval. They focus on a single case or cluster of matters, with reports needing to meet a preponderance of evidence standard.

Anyone named in the report has the right to testify, and a judge must sign off before release. Trump's criticism of Pirro's decision has fueled speculation in Washington that she, a long-time Trump ally and Fox News host, could be forced out.