West Asia war uncertainty keeps businesses on edge

MUMBAI: Prolonged conflict in West Asia is creating significant uncertainty for businesses, making it hard for them to manage costs and plan for the future. Rising costs from commodity inflation, freight charges, and exchange rates have squeezed profit margins, and some companies fear that reduced discretionary demand could result from frequent price hikes.

Shrikant Kanhere, MD & CEO at AWL Agri Business, explained that their biggest uncertainties stem from volatility in commodity prices, raw material costs, freight costs, and shipping timelines—all of which could impact supply chain planning, requiring them to focus on execution, cost discipline, and diversifying their sourcing.

Mayank Shah, chief marketing officer at Parle Products, noted that pricing products is becoming increasingly challenging due to the lack of stability in rates. B. Thiagarajan, MD at Blue Star, warned that continued uncertainty could lead companies to postpone capital deployment, which could negatively affect new job additions and overall demand. Thiagarajan said, "This whole FY will be strained. When costs go up, both margins and consumer demand get impacted."

In their recent quarterly earnings, companies highlighted that commodity inflation remains a major headwind, projecting further price hikes. ITC, in their recent earnings call, stated that a protracted conflict in West Asia, along with emerging El Nino conditions that may weaken monsoons and intensify heatwaves, could negatively impact growth, inflation, and the current account.

Ashok Nair, MD at RPG Life Sciences, added that prolonged geopolitical conflicts may increase uncertainty for businesses in the short term, but the firm's expansion into new and emerging markets provides some operational buffers. Ashish Goenka, group CFO at Tata Consumer Products, announced that supply chain volatility would likely result in more price hikes, potentially making festive shopping more expensive.

Goenka also stated that further pricing interventions may be necessary due to the inflationary impact on margins. Mohit Malhotra, global CEO at Dabur India, agreed that inflationary pressures are expected to continue.