'We are winning, but the next threat is already inside Israel,' IDSF chairman says
The former IDF official, Winner, headed operational planning for the IDF's Southern Command from 2013 until roughly a year ago.
IDF Brig.-Gen. (res.) Erez Winner, in an interview with "Defense & Tech" podcast, asserted Israel's military triumph over Hamas and Hezbollah, yet lamented the protracted Gaza conflict as a military failure. This perspective was underscored by Winner's assertion that Iran's missile strikes predominantly impact nations like Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, rather than Israel, due to Iran's acknowledgment of Israel's retaliatory capabilities.
The IDF chief emphasized that deterrence is discernible through an adversary's actions, not benevolence.
Despite Israel's military victories, Winner harbored the greatest concern for an impending "battle on our homeland." This threat encompasses the infiltration of illegal weapons into Israel, the proliferation of crime organizations within Arab society, and the potential threat posed by an armed Palestinian Authority in Judea and Samaria.
These elements, Winner warned, could potentially weaponize against Israeli communities. Reflecting on his role as former head of operational planning for the IDF's Southern Command, Winner bluntly labeled the inability to promptly conclude the Gaza war as a military misstep, attributing responsibility to both former and incumbent chiefs of staff.
Drawing from his joint research with Prof. Gabi Siboni on 12 historical instances where regular armies defeated guerrilla forces embedded in civilian populations, Winner contended that Israel did not meet the three essential criteria for victory: control of resources, territory, and the population. He argued that Israel expended 2024 battling Hamas while simultaneously sustaining it. When pressed on the recurrent blunder in Gaza, Winner succinctly stated: "Not addressing the population."
In terms of defense technology, Winner criticized the IDF's approach, citing "unprofessional professionalism." He argued that IDF personnel are frequently subjected to two-year rotations in senior roles, thereby impeding the development of deep expertise and enabling manufacturers to dictate procurement decisions. Winner posited that the future lay not in expensive, one-off fighter jets but rather in the widespread adoption of expendable drones, equipped with AI to rapidly convert numerous tracked targets into targeted strikes.
When asked to identify the single technology Israel should prioritize immediately, Winner delivered a single-word response.
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