Opec+ tipped to raise production again but new quotas loom

Opec+ is set to increase its oil production quotas for September, with Saudi Arabia, Russia, and five other members aiming to boost output by 188,000 barrels per day, according to Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy. However, this is likely to be the final adjustment in the current series of production increases, as the group has been concerned about falling oil prices since late 2022.

In the past three rounds of cuts between 2022 and 2023, Opec+ reduced total output by nearly six million barrels per day. Between 2025 and the present, Opec+ members Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates have gradually increased production. Yet, many Opec+ members struggle to meet their official production targets due to a decline in production capacity, particularly in the Gulf countries due to the near-paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz caused by Iran during the ongoing Middle East war.

The group faces potential "difficult talks" over new production quotas next year, with some member countries, such as Iraq, expressing a desire to significantly boost production, according to Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS. The UAE's withdrawal from the group in May highlights weaknesses in maintaining cohesion within Opec+, as it had invested in expanding its oil production capabilities, making it difficult to justify staying under strict production limits.