India stands alone as Asia’s demand growth engine as US-Iran hostilities reignite
Asia-Pacific refined products demand should hold above May’s trough and return to y/y growth by year-end, contingent on the course of the US-Iran conflict and Chinese crude buying. Neither outcome is possible without India. Historical data and our implied demand model show Asian products demand falling by 3.11 Mbd y/y in April to its lowest ...
India emerges as the sole Asia-Pacific region with thriving demand growth for refined products, despite escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. This resilience stems from China's reduced crude imports, which have opened up market opportunities for other buyers, enabling refineries to increase output and avoid deeper supply shortages.
The renewed stability in Asia's oil market, following an interim US-Iran ceasefire, has allowed refinery operations to rebound, lowering prices and supporting demand. However, the trajectory of demand recovery is contingent on the resumption of normal crude imports via the Strait of Hormuz, which remains uncertain due to recent developments.
Despite challenges from the conflict, such as fuel and feedstock shortages, higher prices, and weakened consumer confidence, India's refined products demand has remained robust, except for LPG. The country's demand growth is largely sustained by price pass-through shielding consumers from costs, while transport fuel demand has stayed strong. Nevertheless, India remains the key driver of Asian demand growth, and potentially globally.
Written by urgent.news from Hellenic Shipping News's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
