How many packs of Pokémon cards do you have to buy to catch ’em all? Probably hundreds, and most will be quite boring
A mathematical simulation shows why it can take so long to collect a full set of Pokémon cards.
Thirty years since its creation, the Pokémon franchise continues to dominate pop culture. A central aspect of the Pokémon world is the collection of "pocket monsters" through trading cards. The randomness of opening packs containing unknown cards has always been a key part of the experience. But just how many packs must one buy to collect them all? The answer varies significantly depending on the specific set of cards.
To determine this, a simulation was conducted using six recent Pokémon Trading Card Game sets from the current Mega Evolution series. The simulation used published pull rates from thousands of real booster packs opened by collectors. Each virtual collector opened packs one at a time, recording which cards were new or duplicates. Over 10,000 virtual collectors were simulated opening packs of ten cards each.
The simulation resulted in a median of 110-130 packs being needed to complete the base set for five of the six sets, with Pitch Black requiring about 129 packs on average. Mega Evolution took about 130 packs, while Phantasmal Flames, Chaos Rising, and Perfect Order required 131, 133, and 111 packs respectively. This large number of packs highlights the randomness involved in collecting Pokémon cards.
The excitement of opening packs declines as more cards are collected. After around 15 packs, fewer than half the cards in the next pack are expected to be new. By 30 packs, it's common to only obtain one or two unfamiliar cards. This is explained by the "coupon collector's problem", a mathematical concept where finding duplicates dominates the process as the collection nears completion.
While opening packs can remain an enjoyable, nostalgic experience, the novelty fades faster than one might think. The simulation suggests that the goal of "catch 'em all" may involve collecting many of the same cards again and again. Despite this, the Pokémon franchise's enduring popularity and the fun it brings to collectors remain undeniable.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
