El-Sayed vs. Stevens: How the Michigan Primary Could Reshape Democrats

Michigan Democrats cast their votes on Tuesday in a highly anticipated primary election, which could not only determine the successor to retiring Senator Gary Peters but also serve as a barometer for the party's ideological direction. Public health advocate Abdul El-Sayed and Representative Haley Stevens are competing for the Democratic nomination in a contest that has evolved into a national debate over party ideology, campaign financing, and influence within the party structure.

Stevens has positioned herself as the establishment candidate, receiving endorsements from Governor Gretchen Whitmer and benefiting from millions of dollars in outside spending by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) super PAC. El-Sayed, on the other hand, has united the progressive faction of the party, earning support from Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. He argues that grassroots organizing can triumph over institutional dominance.

The primary's outcome could have significant implications beyond Michigan. A victory for El-Sayed in both the primary and the general election against Republican Mike Rogers would be seen as a testament to progressive messaging in a competitive battleground state. Conversely, if he wins the nomination but loses the general election, moderates might claim that progressive candidates are a disadvantage in swing-state races.

For Stevens, the reverse scenario applies, with supporters arguing she has the best chance of retaining the seat for Democrats.

The race has been marked by unprecedented levels of outside spending. United Democracy Project, an AIPAC-affiliated super PAC, has spent approximately $30 million to support Stevens and oppose El-Sayed, which has elevated Michigan into a broader battle over the role of outside money in Democratic primaries. Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of Our Revolution, the group founded by Bernie Sanders in 2016, views the election as a test to ascertain if unlimited outside spending can compensate for genuine grassroots efforts.

He emphasized that the contest is not solely about AIPAC but rather reflects the voters' response to candidates emphasizing affordability, housing, and healthcare. Geevarghese stated that although Democrats were outspent, they were not out-organized.

Stevens' campaign disputes the notion that outside spending is the primary factor in her position in the race. Her spokesperson, Joetta Appiah, pointed to polling that consistently shows Stevens as the strongest Democratic candidate to face Rogers and argued that Republicans would prefer to run against El-Sayed instead. Democratic strategist Doug Gordon suggested that an El-Sayed victory would be a significant blow to AIPAC, regardless of the result in November.

He also noted that Michigan's late primary calendar leaves the eventual nominee with less than 100 days to unite Democrats before the general election, posing a challenge for both campaigns.

Jim Kessler, Third Way's executive vice president for policy, highlighted that the AIPAC spending dispute masks a demographic reality specific to Michigan. The state has the highest percentage of Arab American residents among all U.S. states, while its Jewish population is less than half the size of its Arab American community. Kessler told Newsweek that Israel will persist as a dividing line in Democratic politics, regardless of the primary's outcome. He emphasized that the result will hinge on the voters' decision, not party leaders.

Establishment Democrats largely back Stevens, with Governor Whitmer endorsing her recently, citing her qualifications to win. The endorsement also brought back memories of Whitmer's decisive victory over El-Sayed in the 2018 gubernatorial primary. El-Sayed's campaign criticized the move as further evidence of the corporate establishment uniting against him.

The campaigns have concentrated their efforts on building a winning coalition, with special attention on Black voters, who constitute roughly one-fifth of Michigan's Democratic primary electorate. Historically, Black voters have tended to support more moderate candidates, including Hillary Clinton over Sanders in Michigan in 2016.

Recent polling indicates that Stevens maintains an advantage among Black voters, particularly those over 55, while El-Sayed has stronger support among younger and college-educated voters across racial lines. Both campaigns have heavily focused on this demographic in the final weeks leading up to the primary.