Climate change could dramatically reduce water flowing from the West's headwaters
The small mountain streams that feed many of the West's rivers may face a much drier future. A new study led by NAU researchers found that groundwater-fed streamflow, known as base flow, has been steadily declining across headwater watersheds in the western United States since 1950 and could decrease by 45% to 65% by the end of this century if current climate trends continue.
A recent study highlights the potential for significant reductions in water flowing from the West's mountain headwaters due to climate change. Researchers from NAU's School of Earth and Sustainability analyzed 75 years of streamflow data from 115 headwater basins across 11 Western states. They found that groundwater-fed streamflow, or base flow, has been steadily decreasing since the 1950s and could diminish by 45-65% by the end of the century if current climate trends persist.
This decline is primarily driven by warming temperatures, shrinking snowpack, and increasingly dry conditions. Headwaters, which constitute nearly 88% of the western U.S. river network, supply much of the region's surface water. The study emphasizes the need for better monitoring of these often-overlooked systems, as they play a crucial role in sustaining water supplies, supporting ecosystems, and maintaining streamflow during dry periods.
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