Beneficios récord de la banca y un golpe de suerte para el Ibex

An 18-year-old woman played a crucial role in the Ibex reaching its 2007 highs. It took years of blood, sweat, and tears for the index to achieve this feat. Over eight months have passed since the selectivo reached this milestone, ample time to surpass new highs and reach the 20,000 points mark. To achieve higher peaks, the Ibex requires a final push from its constituents and a favorable environment.

The banking sector plays a significant role, accounting for more than 30% of the Ibex. The six major Spanish banks have recorded 20.164 billion euros in profits during the first six months of the year, an 18% increase compared to the same period in 2025. This record is unprecedented and began in 2022 after the European Central Bank ended the zero-interest-rate era.

Since then, profits have continued to rise due to growth in both credit and products that allow them to improve their margins further. The small but notable role of the technology sector is now helping, as the Spanish stock market remains immune to corrections in the most exposed to artificial intelligence, which just a few years ago acted as a catalyst for frenzied gains in stock markets.

Current Ibex levels are part of the same visual trend seen in other indices, such as the Stoxx 600 or the Dax, also at an all-time high. Investors are following the visual trend manifested in other indices, rather than geopolitical conflicts that have long been a catalyst for stock market gains. However, these conflicts still have the potential to disrupt the calm and cause significant volatility in oil prices.

The current barrel price is far from the March highs, but a return to these levels would lead to renewed inflation and force central banks to accelerate interest rate hikes. A rise in financing costs, which has not yet reached the maximums recorded in March, could help the Federal Reserve's Kevin Warsh avoid raising interest rates, a move contrary to Trump's wishes.

This week, the market sent signals to the Fed chairman that his words or tone were inadequate or did not convey the necessary calm. With the 30-year US bond above 5.2%, market warnings are not yet concerning, according to experts, but they serve to quarantine the credibility of the world's largest economy.