How war with Iran brought Israel closer to its Middle East neighbors - analysis

On July 28, US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met in Washington for their first face-to-face discussions since the current conflict between the United States and Iran began. The agenda of the meeting was not disclosed. It took place days before Israeli and Lebanese representatives were scheduled to return to Rome for the next round of US-mediated talks on border arrangements, Israeli withdrawals, and proposed "pilot zones" in southern Lebanon.

Beyond Lebanon, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said in an interview on July 26 that his country is working with several nations to establish a security agreement with Israel. Sharaa believes such an arrangement could pave the way for a comprehensive peace deal, without Syria having to abandon its claim on the Golan Heights.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa spoke on July 26 by telephone, discussing bilateral relations, the Abraham Accords, and regional developments. The call comes after Bahrain's announcement, characterized by experts as the leaders' first publicly disclosed conversation since the October 7 attacks.

These diplomatic moves coincide with growing uncertainty surrounding Saudi Arabia. While Washington and Riyadh signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement on July 22, Trump announced that he would not allow the deal to proceed unless Saudi Arabia normalized relations with Israel and joined the Abraham Accords. Saudi Arabia insists on a credible path to Palestinian statehood before considering formal normalization.

Four regional specialists provided varying perspectives on whether the current diplomatic activity represents a genuine opening, a limited security adjustment, or a temporary response to the ongoing war. Israeli researcher Nir Boms argued that Israel and Syria share long-term interests in security arrangements and dealing with Hezbollah, despite the territorial dispute. Syrian President Sharaa could benefit from a security arrangement by consolidating his authority over Syrian territory.

However, Middle East scholar Joshua Landis remains skeptical. He suggests that Syria's weak position makes it difficult for Sharaa to accept additional territory occupied by Israel, such as the Golan Heights, in a peace agreement. Landis also believes Israel will not withdraw from its current position and the international community is unlikely to support Syria.

A former Bahraini diplomat interpreted the Syrian overture as a result of military weakness, the need for sanctions relief, and the desire to regain international legitimacy. The diplomat believes Syria is pragmatically forced to establish a functional security arrangement with Israel, aiming for a return to pre-1974 disengagement lines while reaffirming its sovereignty over the Golan Heights. However, the diplomat doubts Syria will realign with Iran.