Who is leaving Germany in its “triple migration turnaround"?

Germany is currently experiencing a "triple migration turnaround," according to a report from the German Economic Institute. The study, which analyzed figures from the Federal Statistical Office, found that net migration from 2023 to 2025 dropped from 663,000 to 235,000 people - the lowest figure since 2010, excluding the pandemic years. The report identifies three migration trends that have been shifting, significantly affecting Germany's migration landscape.

Firstly, fewer people are coming to Germany as refugees. In 2023, 329,000 people applied for asylum compared to 113,000 in 2025. The decline is attributed to stricter German asylum policies and changing circumstances in source countries such as Syria and Afghanistan.

Secondly, European Union workers are leaving Germany. In 2023, roughly 42,000 EU citizens moved to Germany for work, but by 2025, this number had nearly reversed to 45,000 leaving Germany. As aging nationals of newer EU states, like Romania and Bulgaria, return to their home countries, this trend is expected to continue.

Lastly, more German citizens are leaving the country. In 2023, around 74,000 Germans resided abroad, increasing to 97,000 by 2025.

The implications for the German economy are complex. While overall migration slowed down, skilled-work-related migration remained stable. Between 2023 and 2025, residence permits issued for job-related reasons rose from 13.6 percent to 15.6 percent. However, the Institute warns that Germany should not become complacent. With low birth rates and an aging population, the country faces a potential shortage of 4.3 million working-age individuals by 2036.

Maintaining a balance between the working-age and retired population is crucial to support Germany's social security system. The Institute suggests that the German government should not assume the continued increase in skilled labor migration, as traditional source countries face their own demographic challenges, including declining birth rates due to increased mobile phone and social media usage.