Fires in Europe are breaking records: here’s what the future holds
Nature, Published online: 30 July 2026; doi:10.1038/d41586-026-02361-3 Countries such as Spain and France can expect fire regimes more like those of California as climate change favours hot, dry conditions, scientists suggest.
Record-breaking fires in France and Spain are fueled by an unprecedented heatwave, with satellite data revealing 91,000 hectares have burned in France alone as of July 29. This surpasses the previous record of over 66,000 hectares burned during the entire fire season, typically spanning from March to October. Spain has experienced similar devastation, with more than 200,000 hectares ablaze, marking the largest single fire in the country's history. The fires have forced the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of residents.
Ministers from Spain and the United Kingdom have declared climate change a national security emergency, emphasizing the severity of the situation. Scientists warn that these blazes could signify a shift in fire patterns in southern Europe, as the region transitions from relative calm to conditions resembling those of highly combustible areas like California.
Research indicates the intensity of hot, dry, fire-promoting weather in France and Spain has increased by up to 50% over the past decade compared to the 1981-2010 period.
Parts of Spain and Portugal that historically experienced fewer than ten days of highly fire-promoting conditions now see up to 25 such days annually. The intense fires observed this year and in recent years suggest that heightened fire risk is becoming a reality. Fires near Madrid nearly destroyed a NASA facility used for deep-space communication, while French firefighters battled a towering "fire cloud" capable of generating erratic weather, a phenomenon never before seen in the nation. Another heatwave is on the horizon.
To analyze trends in fire risk across southern Europe, researchers compiled historical records dating back to the 1980s on burned land area and fire counts in Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, and Greece. Between 2016 and 2025, wildfire activity decreased substantially compared to 1981-2010, with fewer fires and less burned area in all countries except Portugal.
Despite rising temperatures and fire risk, the number of fires declined by at least 40% in each country. Meteorologist Raúl Cordero from the University of Groningen attributes this decline to increasingly extreme fire weather conditions, including hotter and drier environments. He emphasizes that climate change is the primary driver of these trends, stating that rising temperatures are creating the perfect conditions for unprecedented wildfires in Europe.
Written by urgent.news from Nature's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
