How two wars and El Nino could fuel world hunger

A powerful El Nino weather pattern is intensifying across the Pacific, threatening key farming regions with either drought or flooding. The US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 63% chance that this El Nino could be very strong this year. Combined with high oil prices, El Nino could increase food inflation by up to 1.5%, according to JP Morgan.

Two major conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have kept global food supplies stable, but this third crisis could tip the balance. Russia's war in Ukraine hinders one of the world's major grain-exporting regions, while Iran's war raises energy and fertilizer prices, affecting food production. The World Bank warns that El Nino could reduce rice output by 20% to 50% in affected areas.

Maximo Torero, chief economist of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), warns of a complex situation by year-end due to El Nino and delayed monsoon rains in India. El Nino may also slow India's monsoon season, crucial for rice planting. The FAO predicts the highest drought risks in Africa's Sahel region, southern Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central America's Dry Corridor.

Despite geopolitical strife, food prices are still nearly 20% below 2022 levels. The world produced the largest grain harvest in history last year, thanks to improved agricultural productivity. However, hunger remains a major issue, with 266 million people facing acute hunger, mostly due to conflict. War destroys local food sources, displaces people, damages infrastructure, and obstructs humanitarian aid.

The UN projects that the Middle East conflict could leave millions more hungry by 2030, not accounting for El Nino's impact.