Over a barrel
Ukrainian drones have choked Kazakhstan’s main oil route through Russia. Romania is most exposed, and Astana is now hedging each bet it has. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev picked his moment. On July 25, seated beside Vladimir Putin at a forum in the Siberian city of Omsk, Kazakhstan’s president urged his host to freeze the war in Ukraine […] Over a barrel was originally published on Emerging Europe .
Kazakhstan's oil route via Russia has been severely impacted by Ukrainian drone attacks. Romania, heavily reliant on Kazakh oil, is now particularly exposed to the consequences. At a summit with President Putin in Omsk, Kazakhstan's leader Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called for an end to the Ukraine conflict. However, the Kremlin swiftly rejected the notion, stating that Kazakhstan is Russia's closest ally.
Between July 17-20, four tankers were struck while loading Kazakh crude at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal in Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. By July 23, output at Tengiz, Kazakhstan’s largest oil field, had dropped by more than half to about 406,000 barrels a day, with national production falling by roughly 20%.
The pipeline, which transports about 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports, had been halted on July 21. The shareholders of the CPC, including Russia, Kazakhstan, Chevron and ExxonMobil, suffered significant losses. Despite initial assurances from Chevron that exports were unaffected, Kazakhstan's energy sector has been hit hard before.
In November 2023, a naval drone disabled a deep-water mooring at the terminal, while in January two more tankers were hit by drones. The country had experienced other disruptions, including a fire, power cut and a reduction in output at Tengiz that same year. Romanian economic consultant Adrian Negrescu had warned of a potential fuel crisis in Bucharest, given that 63% of Romania's crude imports come from Kazakhstan.
Despite promises from Romania's prime minister, the price of standard petrol and diesel in Romania has risen in recent days. As the European Union banned fuels refined from Russian crude, refiners in Europe began increasingly relying on Kazakhstan. However, Kazakhstan's energy minister noted that the northern route to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is expected to remain constrained for five to 10 years.
The country's foreign ministry condemned the drone strikes, urging Ukraine to cease targeting the CPC.
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