Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the third quarter of 2026

The ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q3 2026 revealed expectations of moderate inflation and growth over the next few years. Headline inflation, measured by the HICP, was anticipated to average 2.7% in 2026, 2.2% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028, with no change for 2026 and 2028 compared to the previous survey. Expectations for HICP excluding food and energy were slightly lower at 2.4% in 2026, 2.2% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, with a 0.2 percentage point revision upward for 2026.

Longer-term expectations for 2031 remained at 2.0%. Respondents also predicted a slight increase in real GDP growth, with growth expected to be 0.6% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027, and 1.3% in 2028. Longer-term growth expectations were revised downward by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2%. Unemployment rate expectations were slightly higher, with a forecast of 6.3% in 2026, 6.2% in 2028, and 6.1% in the longer term.

The survey noted that the balance of risks was slightly more positive in 2026 and more balanced thereafter.