ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – June 2026

In June, the median rate of perceived inflation over the past year fell to 3.6%, down from 4.0% in May. The median forecast for inflation in the next year decreased to 3.0%, from 3.5%. Expectations for inflation a decade ahead also dropped to 2.8%, from 2.9%. Expectations for inflation over the following year remained unchanged at 2.4%.

Uncertainty surrounding these inflation expectations decreased for the second month in a row, though it stayed higher than before the Middle East conflict began. Those with lower incomes still reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those with higher incomes. Younger respondents aged 18-34 continued to view inflation more favorably than those aged 35-54 and 55-70.

Consumers' expectations for nominal income growth in the next year rose to 1.1%, up from 1.0% in May. However, perceived nominal spending growth over the past year decreased to 5.1%, from 5.4% in May. Anticipated nominal spending growth over the next year fell to 3.6%, from 3.8% in May, with those in the lowest three income groups expecting a bit more growth than those in the top two.

Economic growth expectations for the next year improved to -1.4%, from -1.7% in May. Unemployment rate expectations for the next year fell to 11.2%, from 11.3% in May. As previously noted, lower-income households anticipated a higher unemployment rate over the next year (13.8%) compared to higher-income households (9.7%). Consumers still believed the unemployment rate would rise slightly from the current 10.7%, signaling a stable job market outlook.

Home price expectations for the next year were projected to rise by 3.4%, down from 3.6% in May. Home price growth expectations remained higher in the lowest income group (3.7%) compared to the highest (3.2%). Interest rate expectations for mortgages over the next year increased to 5.0%, up from 4.9% in May. As usual, lower-income households expected higher mortgage rates (5.8%) than higher-income households (4.4%).

The proportion of households reporting tighter credit access declined in June, as did the percentage anticipating tighter credit conditions in the future. Microdata for these findings are available on the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) website. The July results will be released on August 21, 2026. For media inquiries, contact Benoit Deeg at +49 172 1683704.

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