Turning Turkey’s double bind against it: How Israel is outsmarting Erdogan - opinion

Turkey finds itself trapped in a delicate situation where it must walk the tightrope between Western alliances and maintaining its independence. This precarious position is exemplified by Israel's strategic maneuvering against Erdogan, as the Israeli government read Turkey correctly and capitalized on its vulnerabilities. The Mavi Marmara incident in 2010 acted as a catalyst, fracturing the relationship between the two nations and laying the groundwork for Turkey's growing hostility towards Gaza.

Ankara's strategy is governed by a double bind, where Turkey is expected to be both Western enough to receive financial aid and military support, and revisionist enough to retain its strategic importance. This paradox forces Turkey to constantly navigate between alignment and rupture, performing a delicate balancing act to maintain its position as a crucial player in regional affairs.

By exerting pressure on Turkey, neighboring nations can pivot towards alternative partnerships, potentially obstructing NATO and restricting access to vital resources. However, rewarding Turkey's cooperation only intensifies the demands placed upon it, making it increasingly difficult for Ankara to resist. Israel has multiplied these options, effectively eroding Turkey's indispensability through the establishment of alternative partnerships and alliances.

Washington remains trapped in this dilemma, as it relies heavily on Turkey's access to strategic areas, such as the Black Sea, straits, and Syria. The United States is hesitant to resolve the Turkish double bind due to fears of obstruction and dependence, opting instead to postpone any decisive action.

The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, extends this model beyond NATO, creating a mechanism that allows an armed attack on one nation to be considered an attack on all. This agreement further entrenches Turkey's indispensability, as it monetizes its position and extracts concessions from its allies.

Ankara's aim is to position itself as a vital regional player, exploiting Israel's policy to undermine its own dependence on Turkey. This unofficial Sèvres Deterrent doctrine weaponizes Turkey's need for indispensability, threatening neither Turkish territory nor unity but instead catalyzing partnerships, corridors, and capabilities that Ankara fears.

By creating a mutually reinforcing perimeter of pressure in various regions, Turkey aims to ensure its indispensability as a regional power. The Constantinople Protocol operationalizes this strategy by establishing redundancy in critical sectors, such as ports, airspace, shipping, finance, trade, energy, cables, and data. This redundancy ensures that no single Turkish gate can be monopolized, rendering Turkey's coercion ineffective.

The Poseidon's Wrath contingency, triggered when Turkey weaponizes occupied northern Cyprus against its allies, demonstrates the potential consequences of Ankara's actions. The end state involves neutralizing forward systems, denying reinforcement, removing Turkish forces, and restoring Cypriot sovereignty. While Turkey still creates crises, it no longer controls the outcome, as the architected response moves from signaling to enforcement.

Despite the growing Turkish-NATO membership, Israel continues to exploit the asymmetry, treating Turkish NATO membership as a constraint rather than a veto. NATO assesses armed attacks on a case-by-case basis, with each ally determining the appropriate response. Israel's strategy effectively neutralizes Turkey's leverage while deepening the military partnerships with Greece, Cyprus, and other allies.

By treating Turkish NATO membership as a constraint rather than a veto, Israel ensures that Ankara remains dependent on its strategic interests, further reinforcing the Sèvres Deterrent doctrine. As the region becomes increasingly interconnected and interdependent, Turkey's ability to wield coercion diminishes, while the resilience of its partnerships and alliances strengthens.