Big Oil Warns Global Fuel Stocks Are Running Dangerously Low
The world is running short on fuels—the warning was first issued by some analysts who were watching the physical market rather than futures charts. Now, Big Oil is joining the chorus of warnings, with Shell, Exxon and Chevron all saying that prices at the pump are set to stay higher, regardless of where crude oil prices go. “The constraint pain point in the energy system is refining," Exxon’s…
Global fuel stocks are running perilously low, prompting warnings from major oil companies. Shell, Exxon, and Chevron have all declared that prices at the pump will remain high, irrespective of crude oil price movements. Exxon's CFO Neil Hansen pointed out that refining is the critical bottleneck, a point many market observers have neglected.
While futures prices have dropped, physical markets remain far worse off, especially for refined products. The wars in the Middle East and Ukraine have reduced global refining capacity by up to 10%. This deficit, coupled with China's fuel export restrictions and Russia's diesel ban, has severely curtailed refining output. The crisis is particularly dire in April, when Energy Aspects and Rystad Energy warned of tight fuel inventories, given the region's prominence in both crude oil and refined product exports.
Rabobank's Joe DeLaura highlighted that the Middle East war has led to a diesel supply crunch, as Persian Gulf refineries cannot export their products. This fuel shortage affects essential industries, from agriculture to mining and logistics. Exxon CEO's recent statement on capacity levels, coupled with Shell's Wael Sawan's remarks on reoptimizing refining operations, and Chevron's CFO Eimear Bonner's warning about geopolitical uncertainties, all point to a looming supply crunch.
High crack spreads and record high utilization rates at U.S. refineries further exacerbate the issue. Many refineries are operating at 95-97% capacity, with Shell even exceeding 100% utilization, risking adverse consequences. The peak maintenance season, typically September to October, could see a significant reduction in fuel production.
This perfect storm of war, export restrictions, and high utilization rates could have dire economic repercussions, affecting everything from farming to construction.
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