{
  "id": 9781661,
  "title": "Arbeitsmarkt-Studie: Exklusive Ifo-Berechnung: Stellenabbau in Deutschland kommt zum Stillstand",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/25/arbeitsmarkt-studie-exklusive-ifo-berechnung-stellenabbau-in",
  "topic": "business",
  "section": "Business",
  "published": "2026-09-25T15:17:03.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Handelsblatt",
    "slug": "handelsblatt",
    "url": "https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/arbeitsmarkt-studie-stellenabbau-in-deutschland-kommt-zum-stillstand/100257183.html"
  },
  "original_language": "de",
  "account": "The German economy's downsizing of positions has come to a halt, according to the latest September data from the Ifo Employment Barometer, exclusively calculated by the Munich Institute Ifo for Handelsblatt. Klaus Wohlrabe, chief statistician at Ifo, stated that the downward trend on the labor market has been temporarily halted. However, he emphasized that a sustained expansion in employment requires continued economic growth in terms of both length and breadth. Companies, for now, remain cautious in their staffing plans. \"In many sectors of the economy, the readiness for new hires continues to be lacking,\" Wohlrabe dampened expectations for improvement.\n\nWhile the manufacturing sector still shows a decline in employment, it is considerably smaller compared to the past three years. Similarly, the retail sector has been laying off more staff rather than hiring. In contrast, the services sector has seen a positive change, with more positions added for the first time in a long time. The barometer's data is based on monthly surveys of around 9,000 companies from industry, services, retail, and construction. The Ifo index reflects a generally brighter economic outlook, with the five leading economic research institutes – Ifo, DIW, IWH, Kiel Institute, and RWI – forecasting 1.3 percent growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year, more than double the previous estimate. They anticipate a 1.1 percent increase in GDP for the coming year.\n\nDespite the improved economic data, higher employment figures are not expected due to an aging society. According to the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the number of employed people will decrease by 210,000 this year and a further 140,000 next year. The demographic trend will continue to hinder employment growth, combining with low net inflows to reduce the workforce potential by 70,000 in 2026 and 140,000 in 2027. This will have negative consequences for social insurance systems, as fewer contributions will be paid. The IAB predicts that 2026 will be the first year since the 2009 financial crisis when social insurance employment does not grow. The survey also shows declines in self-employed and low-wage workers. Unemployment is expected to rise by 50,000 this year and 20,000 in 2027. Changes in the rules for basic security benefits, which started in July 2026, require parents from the 14th month of a child's life to enter the workforce or participate in integration programs. Compared to the previous old-age pension rules, this requirement only applied from the child's third birthday. The IAB attributes part of the increase in unemployment to these altered rules, with 160,000 additional positions expected to be lost in 2026 and 130,000 in 2027 in the industry sector, while the public sector, education, and healthcare are projected to see the most significant job growth with 170,000 and 150,000 new positions in 2026 and 2027, respectively.",
  "summary": "Das Beschäftigungsbarometer des Ifo-Instituts für das Handelsblatt zeigt: Der Abwärtstrend am Arbeitsmarkt ist vorerst gestoppt. Für einen Aufbau neuer Jobs ist es allerdings noch zu früh.",
  "key_points": [
    "German labor market downsizing halted in September Ifo data",
    "Manufacturing and retail sectors still shedding jobs",
    "Services sector adds positions for first time in long time"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}