{
  "id": 9659118,
  "title": "Nine days from the vote, neither Brazilian front-runner comes close to 50%",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/25/nine-days-from-the-vote-neither-brazilian-front-runner-comes-close-to",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-09-25T00:10:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "MercoPress",
    "slug": "mercopress",
    "url": "https://en.mercopress.com/2026/09/25/nine-days-from-the-vote-neither-brazilian-front-runner-comes-close-to-50"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "As the Brazilian presidential election approaches on October 4, neither front-runner is coming close to the 50% threshold needed to win outright, according to the latest Datafolha poll. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva trails behind his senator opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, with 40% and 36% of voting intentions, respectively. The survey, conducted among 2,002 voters in 125 municipalities, has a margin of error of two percentage points. Other candidates include Augusto Cury at 5%, Ronaldo Caiado at 4%, Renan Santos at 3%, and Romeu Zema and Samara each at 1%. Blank or spoiled ballots account for 5%, while undecided voters make up 2%. If a runoff were held on October 25, Lula and Bolsonaro would be statistically tied at 47% each. Lula's lead has narrowed from 10 points in the first round to just four points in the current poll, after initially widening to three points over four months. Despite this, 80% of voters say their choice is settled, with 35% of those uncommitted potentially still changing their minds.",
  "summary": "Neither of Brazil's two leading presidential candidates is approaching the threshold needed to win outright on October 4, according to the latest Datafolha poll, which puts President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 40% of voting intentions and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro on 36%.",
  "key_points": [
    "Lula and Bolsonaro both below 50% in latest poll",
    "Lula's lead has narrowed to 4 points from 10",
    "80% of voters say their choice is settled"
  ],
  "editors_take": "The narrowing gap between Lula and Bolsonaro, now statistically tied in a potential runoff, suggests a highly contested second round is increasingly likely, with a significant portion of voters still open to changing their minds.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}