{
  "id": 9513855,
  "title": "USD/CAD Price Forecast: Gains ground to near 1.4100, holding bullish bias above 100-day SMA",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/24/usd-cad-price-forecast-gains-ground-to-near-1-4100-holding-bullish",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-24T06:59:15.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-gains-ground-to-near-14100-holding-bullish-bias-above-100-day-sma-202609240659"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "During early European trading hours on Thursday, the USD/CAD pair traded near 1.4100, maintaining a bullish stance above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The US Dollar (USD) strengthened against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) due to stronger US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, which sparked concerns of inflation and bolstered expectations of US rate hikes. The US S&P Global flash PMI showed a rise in September compared to August, with the Composite PMI at 58.4 and Manufacturing PMI at 57.0, both surpassing market expectations. Analyst Chris Weston from Pepperstone pointed out the relative strength of US growth and the aggressive Fed rate-hike pricing, leading to a high probability of a 0.25% rate hike in October, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, a decline in crude oil prices, driven by hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, negatively impacted the CAD, as Canada is a significant oil exporter. Scotiabank analysts noted that Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem's remarks did not advance the interest rate debate, maintaining the policy narrative. The BoC's guidance was consistent with their latest policy statement, indicating a cautious approach toward tightening policy. Despite some concerns about potential inflation risks, the bank believed that CAD losses since early September have been modest and that the FX pass through to inflation is limited. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech conveyed a hawkish tone, with a strong likelihood of further rate hikes and a clear bias toward tighter policy. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index increased by 0.42 points to 148.81, signaling a hawkish shift in aggregate Fed communication. The pair's technical analysis indicates a bullish near-term bias, with the price holding above the 100-day SMA and approaching the upper Bollinger band. Immediate resistance is at 1.4115, and a break above this level could extend the bullish trend to the June 24 high of 1.4248. A drop below the 100-day SMA at 1.3960 and the middle Bollinger band at 1.3915 would expose the lower support at 1.3715.",
  "summary": "The USD/CAD pair trades in positive territory around 1.4100 during the early European trading hours on Thursday.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}