{
  "id": 9415677,
  "title": "The NY governor race pollster scrum",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/23/the-ny-governor-race-pollster-scrum",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-09-23T21:20:49.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "POLITICO",
    "slug": "politico",
    "url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook-pm/2026/09/23/the-ny-governor-race-pollster-scrum-01090375"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "In a recent Quinnipiac University poll, New York Governor Kathy Hochul is leading Republican candidate Bruce Blakeman with a substantial 58-39 percent margin, placing her in the top four landslide victories for New York gubernatorial candidates in the past two centuries. This is by far the best poll for Hochul this year, surpassing a Siena University survey that had her with only a 9-point lead over Blakeman, the Nassau County executive.\n\nThe discrepancy between the two polls is notable. When both pollsters released their results on the same day a few weeks prior to Hochul's previous gubernatorial election in 2022, Siena had found a shrinking lead for Hochul, dropping from 17 to 11 points. However, Hochul ultimately won that race by around 6 points. Quinnipiac's spokesperson, Mary Snow, stated that they released a poll in mid-October showing a 4-point lead for Hochul over Blakeman, which went against other polls at the time. Hochul did indeed win that election.\n\nPollster comparisons have been inconsistent in the past. Both Quinnipiac and Siena accurately predicted Andrew Cuomo's 23-point margin of victory in the October 2018 polls, although Siena's early November numbers showed a shrinking lead of 13 points. A surprising Quinnipiac poll from September 2010 had Cuomo with a surprisingly small 6-point lead over Carl Paladino, while Siena's poll the following day showed a much more accurate 57-24 advantage for Cuomo.\n\nThe main difference this time is that Quinnipiac assumes a higher share of November's turnout will come from New York City. In the 2022 election, the five boroughs accounted for 31 percent of the statewide turnout, while in 2018, it was 34 percent. Siena's sample assumed 30 percent of this year's voters would come from New York City, while Quinnipiac's sample had 34 percent. Additionally, Quinnipiac makes efforts to minimize undecided voters, with only 3 percent of their sample declining to answer the Hochul-Blakeman race question, compared to 9 percent in Siena's poll. According to Snow, this could account for the higher Quinnipiac numbers. When comparing responses for New York City respondents, Siena had Hochul up 57-34 among women, while Quinnipiac found a 63-34 lead for the governor.\n\nAnother difference in methodology is that Quinnipiac asks respondents about their party affiliation, while Siena uses voter registration files. Siena spokesperson Steve Greenberg noted that for the past few years, the New York Times/Siena Poll has been ranked as the most accurate poll in America, and Siena has been polling New York state for nearly 25 years with high accuracy. Republicans, on the other hand, believe that both polls overstate Hochul's advantage. Bruce Blakeman's state Senate Republican Campaign Committee Chair, George Borrello, said, \"Blakeman is closer in the polls I’ve seen than Lee Zeldin was at this moment in time four years ago.\" He also mentioned seeing thousands of Blakeman signs but only a few Hochul signs during his travels around New York state.",
  "summary": "Q THE LANDSLIDE: Quinnipiac University released a poll today that found Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Republican Bruce Blakeman 58-39 — putting her on track for the fourth-largest landslide by a New York gubernatorial candidate in the past 200 years. It’s by far the best poll for Hochul this year and certainly better than a Siena University survey out this morning that found her with a modest 9 point…",
  "key_points": [
    "Kathy Hochul leads Bruce Blakeman 58-39 percent in Quinnipiac poll",
    "Discrepancy noted between Quinnipiac and Siena polls",
    "Quinnipiac assumes higher NYC turnout in November"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}