{
  "id": 9367954,
  "title": "Have South African interest rates finally peaked? Experts weigh in",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/23/have-south-african-interest-rates-finally-peaked-experts-weigh-in",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-23T16:11:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "IOL",
    "slug": "iol",
    "url": "https://iol.co.za/business/economy/2026-09-23-have-south-african-interest-rates-finally-peaked-experts-weigh-in/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "South African interest rates may have reached their peak, with economists anticipating rates to remain steady for an extended period before potential cuts. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% on Wednesday, aligning with the prime lending rate at 10.75%. Despite the increase being widely anticipated, some experts believe the unanimous decision was more hawkish than initially expected.\n\nPSG senior economist Johann Els expressed surprise at the unanimous vote, stating that while there were sufficient arguments for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain rates, concerns about the persistent global supply shock ultimately prevailed. Els anticipates no further rate hikes under current conditions, noting that the economy is not strong enough to fuel demand-driven inflation or significant price impacts.\n\nStandard Bank Group's head of South African macroeconomic research, Dr. Elna Moolman, echoes this sentiment, suggesting that the Reserve Bank may have reached a peak in its interest rate hiking cycle. However, Moolman emphasizes that further relief in interest rates could occur later in the year, contingent on oil price movements and the impact of higher transport costs on other sectors.\n\nFuture Forex CEO Harry Scherzer concurs that the focus now shifts to determining whether Wednesday's rate hike marks the apex of the tightening cycle. His assessment hinges on inflation trends, oil prices, the South African rand, and global interest rates in the forthcoming months.\n\nFurther rate hikes remain a possibility, as the SARB considered two alternative scenarios. If global interest rates rise more than initially projected, another local rate increase could ensue, potentially maintaining elevated rates for a longer period. Conversely, if inflation expectations and wages escalate, another hike would be warranted.\n\nThe domestic economy currently faces pressure, with subdued consumer and business confidence, as well as a contraction in GDP during the second quarter. The SARB projects a 1.2% growth rate for the year. Despite the MPC's hawkish stance, Els suggests that the economy's weakness might mitigate the risk of entrenched inflation, as it is unlikely to generate demand-driven inflation or a significant second-round price impact. He posits that if the situation in the Middle East improves and oil prices plummet, the inflation outlook could improve more swiftly than presently anticipated, potentially triggering earlier rate cuts.",
  "summary": "The Reserve Bank’s unanimous rate hike was more hawkish than expected, but economists say the latest increase could also mark the top of the cycle.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 3,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "IOL",
        "title": "Will it hold or rise? SARB to announce interest rate decision this afternoon",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/23/will-it-hold-or-rise-sarb-to-announce-interest-rate-decision-this",
        "published": "2026-09-23T10:54:00.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "The Citizen",
        "title": "South Africans to pay more on their debt repayments as Sarb hikes interest rates",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/23/south-africans-to-pay-more-on-their-debt-repayments-as-sarb-hikes",
        "published": "2026-09-23T14:12:41.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}