{
  "id": 9363450,
  "title": "Goldman Sachs' interest rate prediction hinges on oil prices",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/23/goldman-sachs-interest-rate-prediction-hinges-on-oil-prices",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-23T15:08:35.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Yahoo Finance",
    "slug": "yahoo-finance",
    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/goldman-sachs-interest-rate-prediction-hinges-on-oil-prices-150835873.html"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Goldman Sachs anticipates a single additional interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in October 2026, followed by potential cessation of rate hikes for the current cycle. However, for the two-and-done strategy to work, a consistent decline in oil prices is crucial to temper inflation, according to Goldman's assessment ahead of a meeting expected to be hawkish. The firm forecasts Brent crude oil prices to fall to $85 per barrel by December. Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs' chief economist, noted in a recent report that the Fed has rarely skipped meetings before elections, with the most notable instance being a 75 basis point hike just six days prior to the 2022 midterms. Beyond October, Goldman expects a stable federal funds rate as core PCE inflation declines faster than projected, and they anticipate rate cuts to their neutral rate estimate of 3.25-3.5% starting late in 2027. The prediction surrounding oil prices appears to be accurate so far this week, as crude oil futures have seen a sharp, multi-day sell-off driven by easing geopolitical supply concerns and diplomatic dialogues between the US and Iran in the UN General Assembly. This shift in risk sentiment could signal a renaissance in the market, fueled by the release of Meta's free AI agents and Iran's potential opening of the Strait within a week.",
  "summary": null,
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}