{
  "id": 9299575,
  "title": "These two risks matter more than U.S. midterms for stocks, Barclays says",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/23/these-two-risks-matter-more-than-u-s-midterms-for-stocks-barclays-says",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-23T08:04:16.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Investing.com",
    "slug": "investing-com",
    "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/these-two-risks-matter-more-than-us-midterms-for-stocks-barclays-says-4912250"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Barclays highlights that equities are currently following the typical pre-midterm election seasonality, yet the bank anticipates that the impact from the upcoming U.S. midterm elections will remain limited. The bank's strategists, centered around Emmanuel Cau, pinpoint oil prices and interest rates as the primary factors to watch ahead of the November vote. Since summer's peak, global equities have trailed by around 3%, in line with the usual decline observed leading up to such elections. Historically, equities rebound by mid-October, suggesting that any immediate negative impact should not be overly concerning.\n\nBarclays' analysts expect a split government as the likely outcome, with Democrats projected to secure a House majority, and the Senate's result remaining uncertain. A unified Republican victory is considered improbable, as public polls indicate Democrats lead in the generic ballot by eight points, and prediction markets estimate a 60% chance of a Democratic sweep. Regardless of the result, the strategists predict the impact on equities will likely be moderate under either scenario. A more scrutinizing Congress could bring temporary volatility in sectors such as technology, healthcare, and banking, but these effects would not likely have lasting consequences on fundamentals. Fiscal policies might become slightly less stringent under a split Congress, though Barclays believes this effect could be smaller than that of a full Republican control, which could have more significant implications for interest rates.\n\nTrade policy is anticipated to remain stable under any election outcome. Instead, oil prices and interest rates appear to be the major drivers influencing equities. Rising yields and oil prices have been contributing to President Trump's declining approval ratings and increasing policy uncertainty, negatively impacting equities. The strategists believe that the Trump administration may have an incentive to maintain stable energy prices. While strong earnings and improved investor positioning offer some protection to equities, a comprehensive shift back to Europe and cyclical sectors like consumer stocks is anticipated to require prolonged stabilization in oil and rates. Barclays advises maintaining a moderate beta stance, favoring banks, value stocks, and companies benefiting from capital expenditure, alongside defensive positions in sectors like telecoms and utilities.",
  "summary": null,
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}