{
  "id": 9141459,
  "title": "Trump’s Belarus potash plan may have limited bite",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/22/trumps-belarus-potash-plan-may-have-limited-bite",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-22T11:38:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Mining.com",
    "slug": "mining-com",
    "url": "https://www.mining.com/trumps-belarus-potash-plan-may-have-limited-bite/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "President Donald Trump's proposed \"massive\" potash deal with Belarus has unsettled fertilizer stocks, but BMO Capital Markets suggests limitations prevent Belarus from significantly challenging Canadian producers. Trump expressed Monday that the US is negotiating to purchase Belarusian potash for \"substantially less\" than the current Canadian price, which accounts for about 80% of US potash imports. He provided no specifics on volumes, timing, or pricing. Belarus might resume supplying some potash to the US once relations between Washington and Minsk improve, but these shipments would likely sell at prevailing market prices rather than deep discounts, according to Joel Jackson, a BMO fertilizer and chemicals analyst. \"We expect those tonnes would be sold at market-based prices, not deep discounts, and in volumes unlikely to materially alter North American potash supply dynamics,\" Jackson said. This development caused a drop in North American fertilizer stocks, with Nutrien (TSX: NTR)(NYSE: NTR) falling about 2.3% and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) slipping around 0.4% on Monday. Belarus, one of the world's largest potash producers, has rebuilt much of its export trade since Western sanctions disrupted traditional routes following Russia's 2022 Ukraine invasion. However, the landlocked nation remains reliant on pricier Russian logistics due to EU sanctions limiting access to Lithuania's Klaipeda port. This makes Belarus an unattractive substitute for Canadian potash, which benefits from established North American transportation infrastructure and Saskatchewan's vast production base. Belarus generates roughly 12 million tonnes annually, divided between granular and standard grades, while the US consumes approximately 10 million tonnes, predominantly granular product. Despite Trump's suggestion that Belarus could sell substantial quantities at steep discounts, economics work against this idea. US potash prices of about $350 to $360 per short ton at New Orleans have risen due to strong demand, making Belarusian suppliers competitive with other major markets. Consequently, Belarus may have little incentive to discount its primary source of foreign currency to gain US market share. Additionally, there may be limited unused product available. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated on Monday that the country has redirected exports east and its potash production is already committed under existing contracts. Even if Western markets reopened completely, Belarus lacks additional volumes to supply them, he added. Lithuania has shown no signs of reopening the more affordable Baltic export route, and EU restrictions on Belarusian potash remain in place. Thus, any additional shipments to the US would likely need to go through Russian ports. The more immediate concern for Canadian producers might be psychological rather than physical, according to Jackson. The possibility of more Belarusian potash could make Nutrien and Mosaic hesitate before significantly raising North American potash prices, even if Belarus cannot supply enough product to fundamentally change the market. US demand remains strong, and BMO still anticipates further potash price increases. However, Trump's announcement introduces another potential competitor into a market where Canadian producers have traditionally held a dominant position. For Belarus to seriously challenge this dominance, it would need greater export capacity, competitive logistics, and enough uncommitted granular potash to serve US buyers. The current conditions, according to BMO's analysis, do not meet these requirements.",
  "summary": "Analysts say logistics, limited supply and global pricing make Belarus an unlikely replacement for Canadian potash.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}