{
  "id": 9134342,
  "title": "EUR/GBP Price Forecast: 100-day SMA blocks recovery as momentum remains subdued",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/22/eur-gbp-price-forecast-100-day-sma-blocks-recovery-as-momentum",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-22T11:48:58.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-price-forecast-100-day-sma-blocks-recovery-as-momentum-remains-subdued-202609221148"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "On Tuesday, the EUR/GBP currency pair experienced a modest uptick, as the British Pound (GBP) faced pressure due to concerns surrounding the UK's worsening fiscal outlook and the Bank of England's (BoE) cautious approach to raising interest rates. Despite this, the pair remained confined to a narrow range, sandwiched between the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), resulting in a broadly neutral technical bias. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP was trading around 0.8580.\n\nThe fiscal situation in the UK has been deteriorating, with the government borrowing £18.3bn in August, up £2.9bn from the previous August and £3.5bn above the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast. This increased borrowing has halved the government's fiscal headroom to around £12bn, putting pressure on Chancellor John Healey to raise taxes and cut spending in the upcoming October 28 Autumn Budget.\n\nStrategists at Brown Brothers Harriman have noted that the UK's fiscal constraints could lead to a more dovish BoE outlook, potentially reducing the need for a 100 basis points rate increase within the next twelve months. This could have a positive impact on the GBP, as it may become less vulnerable to a tighter monetary policy stance. However, the EUR/GBP pair is struggling to break above the 100-day SMA at 0.8593 and the 200-day SMA, which is also clustered at 0.8641. The pair is only marginally above the 50-day SMA at 0.8559 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8578, indicating that nearby supports have yet to trigger a decisive rebound.\n\nTechnical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (14) at around 53 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slightly below zero, suggest mild positive momentum. Meanwhile, a low Average Directional Index (ADX) near 14 indicates a weak, directionless market with a bias towards the downside. On the upside, the key resistance levels are the 100-day SMA at 0.8593, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8604, and the more significant barrier at the 200-day SMA/78.6% retracement convergence at 0.8641. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement near 0.8578, with the 50-day SMA at 0.8559 and the 38.2% retracement at 0.8551 forming secondary demand bands. A deeper decline would expose the 23.6% retracement at 0.8519 and the structural support around 0.8466.",
  "summary": "EUR/GBP edges higher on Tuesday as the British Pound (GBP) remains under pressure across the board, weighed by concerns over the UK’s deteriorating fiscal outlook and the Bank of England’s (BoE) reluctance to raise interest rates while several major central banks have moved toward tighter policy.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "FXStreet",
        "title": "AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Sticks to gains above 112.00 as bulls await 50% Fibo. breakout",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/22/aud-jpy-price-forecast-sticks-to-gains-above-112-00-as-bulls-await-50",
        "published": "2026-09-22T04:31:42.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}