{
  "id": 9121617,
  "title": "Middle East conflict is biggest threat to global economic outlook, WEF warns",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/22/middle-east-conflict-is-biggest-threat-to-global-economic-outlook-wef-9121617",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-09-22T09:48:41.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The National Business",
    "slug": "the-national-business",
    "url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2026/09/22/middle-east-conflict-is-biggest-threat-to-global-economic-outlook-wef-warns/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "A recent survey conducted by the World Economic Forum (WEF) reveals that geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the ongoing Middle East conflict, poses the greatest threat to the global economy. The war, now in its seventh month, could cause significant economic headwinds over the next 12 months, with Iran persistently targeting commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway, typically used for about a fifth of global oil and gas supply, has seen a decline in the number of vessels crossing it, potentially impacting the global economy.\n\nThe survey also highlights the impact of escalating attacks by Ukraine and Russia on Black Sea ports and shipping operations, which could choke off seaborne grain exports from two of the world's largest suppliers, reducing global cereal exports by up to 17% this year. The US-Iran conflict, which began in February, has resulted in waves of drone and missile strikes on Iran's Arab neighbors and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The hospitality, aviation, and tourism sectors have been among the hardest hit due to Iran's attacks on industrial, energy, and civilian infrastructure across the region.\n\nDespite several rounds of mediated negotiations, no peace deal or mechanism to open the strait has been reached. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its 2026 growth forecast for the Middle East to 0.7%, a 1.2 percentage point downgrade from April, due to the fallout from the closure of Hormuz for regional energy exports. The fund expects growth to rebound to 6.5% in 2027, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from its previous assessment.\n\nSaudi Arabia's economy contracted by 4.8% in the second quarter of the year, illustrating the continuing economic effects of regional disruption. Oil activity declined by 24.7%, while non-oil activity increased only by 0.9%. Saudi Arabia is expected to see a growth of 1.7% in 2026. Iran's economy is projected to contract by 5.4% this year. The WEF report indicates that expectations of inflation have moderated significantly in the Middle East since the May survey, with about 62% of respondents expecting moderate inflation, and 27% anticipating high or very high inflation over the next 12 months.",
  "summary": "Geopolitical uncertainty is the biggest threat to the global economy, amid conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, which far outweighs concerns over asset bubbles and trade turmoil, according to a World Economic Forum survey. The war in the Middle East, now in its seventh month , is of a particular concern and could create serious economic headwinds over the next 12 months, with Iran continuing…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 3,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "The National UAE",
        "title": "Middle East conflict is biggest threat to global economic outlook, WEF warns",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/22/middle-east-conflict-is-biggest-threat-to-global-economic-outlook-wef",
        "published": "2026-09-22T09:48:41.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "FXStreet",
        "title": "Australian Dollar steadies as Middle East diplomacy takes focus",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/22/australian-dollar-steadies-as-middle-east-diplomacy-takes-focus",
        "published": "2026-09-22T12:55:18.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}