{
  "id": 9104827,
  "title": "Polymarket: Gap between Eisenkot's Yashar, Netanyahu's Likud widens in former IDF chief's favor",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/22/polymarket-gap-between-eisenkots-yashar-netanyahus-likud-widens-in",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-09-22T07:35:04.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Jerusalem Post",
    "slug": "jerusalem-post",
    "url": "https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-909244"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Polymarket prediction markets have revealed a substantial gap between Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, with Eisenkot's party leading by a significant margin. As of the latest data, Yashar's chances stand at approximately 62%, while Likud follows at around 39%. This is the highest percentage observed for Eisenkot's party in the available market records. The shift has been rapid, with Likud previously leading by 59% and Yashar at just 41% a month ago. The market gap has widened nearly 20 percentage points in Yashar's favor.\n\nThe trading volume in the market concerning which party will secure the most Knesset seats has already surpassed $300,000. According to Polymarket's rules, the market outcome will be determined by the party or electoral list that garners the most seats in the election, not by which candidate ultimately becomes prime minister. Polymarket currently records a total market volume of just over $301,000.\n\nThe trend on Polymarket aligns with recent polling data, although the question of which party will form a government remains complex and hinges on the distribution of seats among political blocs and the ability to assemble a Knesset majority. Eisenkot leads Netanyahu in separate Polymarket markets for the position of prime minister, with Eisenkot's chances at around 52% to 53%, compared to Netanyahu's approximately 29%. However, Polymarket figures are not public opinion polls; they represent the prices of prediction-market contracts that fluctuate with trading activity and can shift quickly. Additionally, these markets measure different outcomes: winning the most Knesset seats does not automatically determine which candidate will ultimately form a governing coalition.",
  "summary": "Polymarket figures reflect the prices of prediction-market contracts, which change with trading activity and can therefore move quickly.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "Jerusalem Post",
        "title": "'No terrorist is immune,' Netanyahu says as IDF chief orders reinforcements to join manhunt",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/09/20/no-terrorist-is-immune-netanyahu-says-as-idf-chief-orders",
        "published": "2026-09-20T11:50:41.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}